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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Trading

In most instances following the news wont help you make money - but there is one way where it can help you and that’s the forex tip contained in this article.
It’s simple to use and apply and can be a very powerful weapon in your forex trading strategy.
Let’s look at this forex tip in more detail.
Today, there is a vast amount of news and research available and it’s all very convincing but you won’t make money using it to make trades off the views the bulk of it contains - it reflects the consensus and we all know the majority of traders lose money.
Why?
Because news is instantly discounted in currency prices ( in today’s world of lightening communications news is discounted in seconds) and is effectively “old news” when you come to trade it, as the market is looking to the future.
Many of the stories are convincing but dead wrong.
Lessons from history
Follow the news and try and trade it and you will end up losing.
History tells us that most important market bottoms are formed on extremely bearish news, and most important market tops are formed on extremely bullish news.
Consider this fact
Also for all the improvements in the quality and delivery of news - the ratio of winners and losers has not altered from 50 years ago!
So obviously knowing and trading off news stories (as most traders do) won't help you win.
There is one way that you can use the news to your advantage though and it’s as follows:
If you are looking at your charts and you see a market that has moved quickly and spiked to the upside, chances are its being driven by the mentions of greed and fear.
Keep an eye on the news and if a bullish story fails to move prices higher be alert for a top and the same goes for a bear market.
Use these two contrary trading tools
You should not assume the market is overbought or oversold - you need to look for confirmation before trading - so use the % bullish and commitment of traders report.
There covered in our other articles and will tell you when the market is ripe for a turn and you can then look for news stories that don't push prices the way of the consensus and look to take the sort side.
The Technical Analysis section of the Website contains material prepared by Nicole Elliott of the Foreign Exchange Department. The material is mostly related to Foreign Exchange and contains views ranging from daily through to a year ahead. The weekly analysis is usually produced on a Monday, the monthly and quarterly reports during the first few days of the month. Other reports are produced on an ad hoc basis or on demand. This section has been split into currency groupings and/or geographical areas. As a result some of the material will appear on more than one of the pages. You will have to use to access the material. If you do not have it, you can load it from the Home Page.
This section is updated on an intraday basis. To ensure that you access the latest available material at all times, you should click on Refresh or Reload before viewing your required document.
This page contains daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and full year views on the three major currency pairs of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.
Contains a full range of views of currencies against the Yen - USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, CAD and SGD.
A variety of European cross rates and major currencies against the Euro can be found on this page.
Comprehensive analysis of GBP against the USD, EUR, JPY, CHF and AUD over the full range of periods.
This page has a wide range of Asian and Pacific currencies against the USD, GBP, JPY and each other.
This final page contains views on markets other than Foreign Exchange.

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